Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Are Interest Rates Going To Rise??

I've been reading a lot of articles lately that are speculating on what interest rates are going to do. I actually watch this very closely as a Realtor, as the affordability of housing changes greatly as rates vary. Where it really comes into play is when I'm working with a buyer and they are qualified up to say $350,000. Suddenly rates spike up and now they only qualify for $300,000. It only takes about 1 percent in rate to make this happen. So the homes we've been looking at are now out of my buyer's price range and we are back at square one.

That being said, the general feeling I get is that rates aren't going to spike up drastically but they will tick up. One article I got from Mike Popnoe of Strategy 7 said:

THEY SAY THAT MARCH COMES IN LIKE A LION AND GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB... But this year, the exact reverse is true when it comes to home loan rates - for quite a few reasons, including the end of the Federal Reserve acting as a large buyer of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). The "demand" created by their fifteen-month program has helped Bond prices stay high and home loan rates stay low.

But the Fed's MBS purchase program will end on March 31st. The Fed has confirmed this several times, including during last week's testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. What's more, the Fed will likely change sides entirely, and actually become a seller of MBS, since their balance sheet hangs heavy with MBS holdings. However, once the Fed begins selling MBS and puts more supply into the market - at the same time as entirely removing their past demand as buyers - this will pressure Bond prices lower and push home loan rates higher.

If this in fact is true, it is all the more reason to act quickly. I think home prices are at or near their bottom, depending on the location, and the rates will outweigh the drop in home value. You just need to do your rate calculation and figure out what you can afford. As always, if you have questions I'm happy to answer them or point you to a good loan officer.

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